» Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities

Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities Reviews

Customer Rating:
Summary: Easy for the layman to understand
Comment: It's difficult enough to get a high school student interested in probabilty. It's nearly impossible to get an adult to understand the workings of probability theory. Sometimes I think that if I hear the "Law of Averages" invoked one more time by an aggressive driver or a lottery player, I'll scream. I wish there were some way to teach the average human being about probability.

"Lightning" is a good start. It does not read like a textbook. It presents the ideas behind probability using object lessons and examples that even the dullest layman can relate to. It introduces the concepts first, using concrete examples such as lottery winnings and crime statistics, and then presents the abstract principle behind the concepts, and attaches the proper technical labels to the concepts and the principle.

The author introduces the reader early to the idea of a "Probability Perspective," a new way to look at the world through eyes that understand probability. The author returns constantly to this theme of the Probability Perspective, with the expectation that by the end of the book the reader will understand what is meant by the term, and will have claimed such a perspective as his own.

Some of the chapters can be read independently, and some build on previous chapters. It's most useful to read the book from cover to cover. The final chapter is a carefully disguised "final exam," at the end of which the readers can decide for themselves whether they have acquired a Probability Perspective.

The language of the book is appropriate for a high school senior or a college student, and is easily readable by an adult.

The only problem with the book is not the book itself, but the subject. Most people will judge the book by its cover (or at least by its subject) and, thinking that probability is either boring or difficult to understand, will pass by this book on their way to something with more cachet. They're missing out on a good read.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: Not Exactly Freakonomics
Comment: Maybe I've been spoiled after reading Freakonomics, which was so clever and unique it was hard to put down, but I found this book to be pretty dull in comparison. Most of the examples were just not that interesting or unique topics to read about, such as gambling odds, political polls, crime statistics and a rehash of the Monte Hall problem from Parade magazine, which was widely written about years ago.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: Delightful perspective builder
Comment: 'Curious' is a quick read about our conceptions and misconceptions on common problems like winning lotteries (don't buy a ticket), winning card games, death, illness, opinion polls and a dozen or so other topics. Fun stuff. You might also read 'Freakanomics' which is way more esoteric and mind-boggling.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: This Book is a Good Bet
Comment: This book is written in short, digestible bites, and offers one of the best overview answers I've read to everyone's perennial question, "What are the odds?"

Early chapters are a primer on casino games. In less than an hour, you can read up on how the major casino games are played, how to calculate your odds of winning in many common situations - and how much you will lose on every play on average if you play for any length of time. Rosenthal emphasizes this last proviso. He shows how EVERY casino game is stacked against the players and will whittle away your stake to nothing in the long run. But some games offer better odds and will deplete you less rapidly than other games.

Then Rosenthal moves on to tell you how to win at the game of life - or more precisely, how not to be caught up in the frequent illogic and hysteria that is generated by headline news and TV shows. He gives a better perspective on what kinds of dangers you are likely to actually face - and they are not terrorists or SARS or street crime.

A few more mathematically challenging topics are addressed - such as the Monty Hall dilemma, and how trends are spotted using linear regression lines. Rosenthal makes the calculation of p-values (used to determine how often a result will happen just by chance) almost comprehensible.

Some of his suggestions about using utility theory when we have to reach a decision may be of questionable value. Probably many of us have tried to make decisions "rationally" by using some formula that involves assigning some level-of-desirability number to each of our options, then considering how likely it is that the benefits of that option will actually materialize. But such calculations usually break down almost immediately in the maze of diverging possibilities we have to consider.

However one of Rosenthal's applications of utility theory stands up and has implications for public policy. He shows how statistics lead to the conclusion that it is unreasonably costly to insure oneself against anything except utter catastrophes. This section of his book is something everyone should consider when buying insurance, especially health insurance. And it's something our elected officials in particular should inform themselves about before proposing any health care legislation.

Rosenthal provides other valuable insights that might shield us and reassure us when facing health care issues. For example, he demonstrates how statistically unlikely it is that you have a certain disease if just one test for that disease comes back positive. For further statistical discussions of this counterintuitive fact, I recommend any of Marilyn vos Savant's books.

"Struck by Lightning" provides ample insight on its own though. It's entertaining, and it contains information you're very likely to use in everyday life.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: Odds Are... You'll Like It
Comment: Shortly after I took this book out at the library I felt a sense of disappointment come over me because I saw the Canadian maple leaf on the spine of the book - making me aware it's a Canadian author. Being a Canuck myself, I've never been a big fan of Canadian lit but just as soon as I started reading this book I knew I was in for a treat!
Struck by Lightning is a book about probabilities and randomness in everyday life, intended to inform and entertain readers without requiring any mathematics background. Odds are you'll like this Lightning strike. These type of books are so much fun ... anecdotes and examples which will stay with the reader long after the last page is turned. And there are not many books that can manage that feat. Lightning strikes are just the start of an exploration of the odds which confront us all. For the booming numbers of poker players there are numerous studies on when to hold em and when to fold em. And for regular casino-goers, there are the odds of each popular game of chance none of which are ever in the player's favour. But the most fun are those tidbits of probabilities with which you can astound your friends and make some cash if you want to rub your knowledge in their collective faces. ... Amaze your friends, confound your rivals. Buy Struck By Lightning and have some fun.

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